Learn vocabulary, terms, and more with flashcards, games, and other study tools. During the Vietnam War, a fighter plane made a non-fatal strafing attack on a US aerial reconnaissance mission at twilight. Learn more about Career Opportunities at CIA. When analysts make quick, gut judgments without really analyzing the situation, they are likely to be influenced by the availability bias. In one experiment, an intelligence analyst was asked to substitute numerical probability estimates for the verbal qualifiers in one of his own earlier articles. BASE-RATE FALLACY: "Continual base-rate fallacies can lead to a lack of validity due to the flaws in the result set." The true figure falls outside the estimated range a much larger percentage of the time.137. d. the false-consensus effect. This is called the base-rate fallacy, and it is the cause of many negative stereotypes based on outward appearance. In experimental situations, however, most participants are overconfident. Base rate fallacy is when the base or original weight or probability is either ignored or considered secondary. To express themselves clearly, analysts must learn to routinely communicate uncertainty using the language of numerical probability or odds ratios. base rate fallacy. Sherman Kent, the first director of CIA's Office of National Estimates, was one of the first to recognize problems of communication caused by imprecise statements of uncertainty. availability heuristic. Another strategy people seem to use intuitively and unconsciously to simplify the task of making judgments is called anchoring. ... To keep it simple, the way i like to think about it is that base rate fallacy is when you use new given information to make an assumption while ignoring any old factual information. The table in Figure 18 shows the results of an experiment with 23 NATO military officers accustomed to reading intelligence reports. For example, if you witness two car accidents in a week you may start to believe that driving is dangerous, even if your historical experience suggests it's reasonably safe. Most people do not incorporate the prior probability into their reasoning because it does not seem relevant. A base rate is a phenomenon’s basic rate of incidence. The availability heuristic. It affects decision making in a number of ways: people decide not to fly on a plane after hearing about a plane crash, but if their doctor says they should change their diet or they’ll be at risk for heart disease, they may think “Well, it probably won’t happen.” Since the former leaps to mind more easily than the latter, people perceive it as more likely. 140For another interpretation of this phenomenon, see Chapter 13, "Hindsight Biases in Evaluation of Intelligence Reporting.". ... To keep it simple, the way i like to think about it is that base rate fallacy is when you use new given information to make an assumption while ignoring any old factual information. Relevance. O a confirmation bias the base-rate fallacy O counterfactual thinking the availability heuristic QUESTION 52 Everyone you know seems to love the TV show The Bachelor. An individual object or person has a high representativeness for a category if that object or person is very similar to a prototype of that category. What are the differences b/t base rate fallacy vs representative heuristic? The base rate fallacy is the tendency for people to ignore relevant statistical information, when estimating how likely an event is to happen. The more a prospective scenario accords with one's experience, the easier it is to imagine and the more likely it seems. On a typical class day, approximately 25% of the class is not in attendance. Anchoring and adjustment 4. Based on paragraph (a), we know that 80 percent or 68 of the 85 Vietnamese aircraft will be correctly identified as Vietnamese, while 20 percent or 17 will be incorrectly identified as Cambodian. c. The representativeness heuristic. Psychologists have shown that two cues people use unconsciously in judging the probability of an event are the ease with which they can imagine relevant instances of the event and the number or frequency of such events that they can easily remember.133 People are using the availability rule of thumb whenever they estimate frequency or probability on the basis of how easily they can recall or imagine instances of whatever it is they are trying to estimate. to locate the information you seek. Ask them to start with this number as an estimated answer, then, as they think about the problem, to adjust this number until they get as close as possible to what they believe is the correct answer. On the other hand, policymakers and journalists who lack the time or access to evidence to go into details must necessarily take shortcuts. Odds ratios are often preferable, as most people have a better intuitive understanding of odds than of percentages. If each one of us analyzes information in a way that prioritizes memorability and nearness over accuracy, then the model of a rational, logical chooser, which is predominant in economics as well as many other fields, can be flawed at times. A base rate fallacy is committed when a person judges that an outcome will occur without considering prior knowledge of the probability that it will occur. Easy Definition of Base Rate Fallacy: Don't think "99% accurate" means a 1% failure rate.There's far more to think about before you can work out the failure rate.
2020 base rate fallacy vs availability heuristic